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SKOKEY Profile
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Registered: 12-2005
Province: Bennington, NH
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Re:


13 of the pending test result in NH are positive so we are up to 39 now. They mentioned 4 counties in that batch that were community spread but didn't give the numbers.
3/19/2020, 1:01 pm Link to this post PM SKOKEY
 
Kaunisto Profile
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Registered: 01-2008
Province: Finland
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Re: Covid-19


Finland is still behind the curve from Scandinavia. Sweden, Norway and Denmark have over 1000 infected and about 5-10 dead each, Finland hits 400 and no deaths reported yet.

Europe now has more deaths than Asia and Italy passes China as worst hit country.

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3/19/2020, 1:43 pm Link to this post PM Kaunisto
 
Kaunisto Profile
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Registered: 01-2008
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Re: Covid-19


Finland now has first death. Scandinavia already has 40.

Spain has more casualties than Iran, making it the third worst hit country at the moment.

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3/22/2020, 1:50 pm Link to this post PM Kaunisto
 
SKOKEY Profile
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Registered: 12-2005
Province: Bennington, NH
Posts: 1308
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Re:


One of my coworkers who is also the boss's son came back from Spain just over two weeks ago. Lucky for us and his family that he has no signs of illness which should have shown up by now if he did get infected.
3/22/2020, 8:58 pm Link to this post PM SKOKEY
 
Kaunisto Profile
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Registered: 01-2008
Province: Finland
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Re: Covid-19


Now 3 deaths in Finland, over 40 in Sweden and over 30 in Denmark.
While far behind Italy, Spain, France and UK, Germany is now starting to take the hit, in both infected and deaths.

During last week the global total of confirmed infected has nearly doubled.

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3/25/2020, 12:57 pm Link to this post PM Kaunisto
 
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Registered: 01-2008
Province: Finland
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Re: Covid-19


Finland shuts down capital region

Capital region of Uusimaa that has about third of country's population and so far majority of confirmed coronavirus cases is to be isolated from rest of country for weeks.

This is a very drastic measure - it's even arguable if it's legal by constitution - especially considering Finland hasn't yet been hit as hard as western Europe.

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3/25/2020, 11:25 pm Link to this post PM Kaunisto
 
Lesigner Girl Profile
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Minerva
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Registered: 11-2005
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Re: Covid-19


Sorry for my absence. I have been obsessed with learning everything I can that might be helpful, and getting the information out there. I finally decided to limit my time online over the last few days and got some other things done, like cleaning and grocery shopping.

Before I went out, though, I made a mask with two layers of tightly-woven cotton fabric, two layers of non-woven fusible interfacing, 1/8" elastic, and sheet metal to go across the nose, all of which I already had on hand. This mask got a bit too warm in the grocery store, though, and it was hard to get a good seal around the nose, so I plan on making another one with one layer of tightly-woven cotton, one layer of interfacing, a longer strip of metal, and straps to tie behind my head instead of elastic to go around my ears.

There has been a lot of disagreement about whether or not a mask can protect someone from this virus, and that's one of the things I spent a lot of time researching. The conclusion I reached is, it depends. A mask can drastically decrease a person's chances of contracting the virus, or it can increase those chances, depending on how it's made and how it's used. Case in point: Someone actually made a video on how to make a mask, but one of the first things they did in that video was say that you could use it once, then turn it inside out and use it again without washing it first! emoticon How in the world could they possibly think that was a good idea? The whole point of wearing a mask is to stop virus-containing airborne droplets from getting into your airways. If a mask is contaminated on the outside, the last thing you want to do is turn that thing inside out and put the contaminated side against your face! emoticon

I have been watching the numbers rise, and making predictions on how many cases we'll have in the United States. When we got around 86,000 cases and beat China, I predicted that we would pass 100,000 within the next 24 hours, and we had more than 100,500 cases only 22 hours later. Yesterday, I predicted we would have 164,233 by the end of the day, and we had 163,788, which was only 445 less than I predicted. After adjusting for that difference, my prediction for the end of today was 188,307, but I feel like we will pass that because we are currently at 180,789 and it's only 4pm here. Maybe we got our hands on some more tests?

Here are stats of confirmed cases and deaths in Michigan, where I live: [source]

Date
Cases
Deaths
25 Mar
2294
43
26 Mar
2856
60
27 Mar
3657
92
28 Mar
4650
111
29 Mar
5486
132
30 Mar
6498
184


Michigan is currently reporting 7615 confirmed cases and 259 deaths.

For New Hampshire, I found stats on "presumptive cases" and deaths. [Source: nhpr radio] I don't know what method(s) they're using to determine their presumptive cases, but here they are:

Date
Cases
Deaths
25 Mar
137
1
26 Mar
158
1
27 Mar
187
2
28 Mar
214
2
29 Mar
258
3
30 Mar
314
3


Finland: [Source: Wikipedia]

Date
Cases
Deaths
25 Mar
880
3
26 Mar
958
5
27 Mar
1,058
7
28 Mar
1,167
9
29 Mar
1,240
11
30 Mar
1,355
13


Kaunisto, whether it's constitutional or not, I think isolating Uusimaa from the rest of the country for at least three weeks, and keeping people out of restaurants, bars and pubs, are all prudent measures. We didn't isolate hot spots or take those other measures until it was too late, and although the whole United States is now on lockdown orders until the end of April, I don't think that's going to be enough, because our federal government took way too long to act, and our president kept downplaying the threat of this virus even long after I started this topic we're posting in right now.

I do hope Finland is making an exception for health care workers, so those who live outside of Uusimaa can help with the rising number of patients.

Last revised by Lesigner Girl, 3/31/2020, 8:28 pm


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3/31/2020, 8:25 pm Link to this post PM Lesigner Girl Read Blog
 
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Minerva
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Registered: 11-2005
Posts: 9606
Karma: 132 (+147/-15)
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Re: Covid-19



...my prediction for the end of today was 188,307, but I feel like we will pass that because we are currently at 180,789 and it's only 4pm here.


188,530. I underestimated it by 259 cases.

I predict at least 216,810 cases by the end of tomorrow. emoticon

Last revised by Lesigner Girl, 4/1/2020, 3:02 am


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4/1/2020, 3:01 am Link to this post PM Lesigner Girl Read Blog
 
Kaunisto Profile
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Registered: 01-2008
Province: Finland
Posts: 202
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Re: Covid-19


Isolation of Uusimaa is far from absolute, certainly health care workers can move.
However, now they're considering blocking Swedish border entirely and that's a problem for northern Sweden because large number of Finnish health care personnel works there.

The separation may have come too late, infections happening all over the country. But I'm sure it'll still be one of most effective measures, much of travel/traffic in Finland is specifically to and from the capital area.


The epidemic is hitting everywhere with horrible inevitability. When you follow number of deaths in a country, it often seems to be a week or two in 1 and then starts to grow every day or two approximately in Fibonacci series.

Couple weeks ago I noted how no east European country had 10 deaths (but nearly all had at least 1); now most have more than 10.
In Africa, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco have sneaked up to about 40 casualties each; south of Sahara, many countries now have first deaths.

What troubles me is that Africa, South America and India (among others) are yet almost untouched. About half of world's population and they have maybe 1% of deaths at the moment. What kind of numbers will we see when it hits the developing countries?


I have to wonder the success of Japan and Korea, of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. There's speculation on how true information we're getting from China, but nevertheless they seem to have done relatively well too.
No doubt their previous experience with epidemics and common use of masks meant a lot, but we should look carefully into what they've done right.

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4/1/2020, 12:59 pm Link to this post PM Kaunisto
 
Lesigner Girl Profile
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Minerva
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Registered: 11-2005
Posts: 9606
Karma: 132 (+147/-15)
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Re: Covid-19


S. Korea has done an excellent job. The number of their active cases started going down after March 11, while ours continue to rise. Out of S. Korea's 9,887 total cases, 5,567 have recovered and 165 have died, which is a much lower mortality rate than the United States has, which has a much lower mortality rate than Italy.

United States
Cases: 212,791
Deaths: 4,759
Recovered: 8,805

Italy
Cases: 110,574
Deaths: 13,155
Recovered: 16,847

People keep talking about "the mortality rate" as if it's a constant rate all around the globe, but they don't seem to realize how medical care can increase a person's chances of survival. This is why it's so important to slow down the spread and flatten the curve, so the number of people who can't breathe don't outnumber the ventilators or hospital beds, or stretch out the medical staff so much that there's not enough time in a day for them to tend to all of the seriously ill patients.

Further, these mortality rates don't include people who are dying from other causes such as heart attacks, strokes, high glucose, kidney failure, overdoses, accidents, and countless other things. While hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid cases, the mortality rates from all these other things increase, too.

Just imagine a teenager who is perfectly healthy, who isn't at all worried about catching Covid or giving it to somebody else, texting while they're driving down the road. They run off the road, hit a tree, and sustain life-threatening injuries that can be treated if they get to the hospital and get treated right away. What if all the ambulances are already tied up, transporting people who can't breathe to the hospital? This same teenager might have even caught Covid a week or two earlier at a party without realizing it and spread it to others, thus contributing to the reason they can't get to the hospital now.

Back to the importance of flattening the curve, I made a chart comparing the United States and Italy. Since we have more than 5 times the population they do, I used the number of cases per million population for the bar graph, and based the mortality rate on total number of deaths and total number of cases for each country. I'm sure these numbers aren't quite accurate, due to (1) not knowing how many of active cases will recover and (2) not knowing how many undiagnosed cases are out there, but I think it's adequate enough to show how the mortality rate rises when we have more cases than we can treat.

I'm putting the graph in a new reply, because I'm using a dataURL instead of storing the image remotely, and the character limit isn't large enough to accommodate my post and the dataURL together.

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4/1/2020, 11:17 pm Link to this post PM Lesigner Girl Read Blog
 


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